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| Tropical Weather Watch Hurricane Forecast Package |
| This is the Tropical Weather Watch Hurricane Forecast Package. This package will contain all the information you will need to help you get prepared for a storm. Information on this page will include: Tropical Weather Watch Forecast (Disclaimer); National Hurricane Center Forecast; Model Runs; National Hurricane Center Forecast Discussion; Tropical Weather Watch Forecast Dicussion (Disclaimer); Satellite Images; Current Watches and Warnings; Evacuations; and Inland Affect. |
| Current Watches and Warnings: Tropical Storm Warning: Alabama/Florida State Line easward to the Suwannee River. |
| Tropical Weather Watch Forecast Discussion |
| August 16, 2009 3:30 PM CDT: Tropical Storm Claudette Nearing Florida Coast Tropical Storm Claudette, which spawned overnight, is nearing Panama City and Apalachicola, Fl. Looking at the current NWS RADAR image from NWS in Tallahassee, FL, Claudette appears to be moving towards the northwest heading towards Panama City, FL. Most of the convection associated with this storm is to the east of the center of circulation. Maximum sustained winds with this system are 50mph with higher gusts. A carnival cruise ship reported a few hours ago of a gust of over 60mph. Currently the main threat with Claudette other than high winds is heavy rain. Due to a weak center of circulation and a present low tide, storm surge does not appear to be a main issue. Some slight strengthening is possible before Claudette reaches land. I will continue to monitor this storm as it approaches the Florida Gulf Coast and update if any changes arise. Tropical Storm Ana continues westward across the Atlantic Ocean towards the Leeward Islands. Looking at current satellite photos of Ana, it appears that dry air is still getting the best of the storm with the main, small area of convection being mainly to the east of the storm. It does not look like Ana will get a break from dry air anytime soon as it continues to move westward due to more dry air in its path. Currently Ana is expected to move towards the west and move more west-northwestward towards the Island of Hispanola and Cuba. With this and if this happens Ana is not expected to survive for long. If Ana happens to survive through these mountains, this storm will be a bare minimal depression. What is left of the storm after this will likely make its way into the Central Gulf of Mexico, and what will happen from there is unkown at the current time. I will also keep an eye on this system and update when needed. Tropical Storm Bill is nearing hurricane strength as it makes its way towards the west-northwest. Bill, like Ana, has dry air ahead of it but is doing much better due to the rich moisture located to the south and east of the storm. Looking at the current color enhanced IR satellite, the cloud tops near the center of the storm are reaching a high altitude indicating the center of the storm is healthy. Bill could be classified as a hurricane as early as tonight if Bill continues to perform as it is currently. Now for the good news (depending on where you are living). The current global model runs are in a near tied agreement on the Bermuda High weakening and moving off towards the west. Given this will happen, Bill will take a more northwardly turn and will avoid the Gulf of Mexico (which doesn't mean let your guard down, anything could happen with these systems). With this comes possible bad news for the East U.S. Coast. Depending on how much the Bermuda High breaks down will depend on the path of this system. The more it breaks down, the more eastward the storm will be. Right now most of the global models are showing Bill skirting the East Coast as a large hurricane, barely missing it. Again, this is the long range and could change at a moments notice. I will continue to monitor this system as it makes its way through the Atlantic and keep you updated on its progress. Forecaster Aldrich: Aldrich@tropicalweatherwatch.com |
| Storm Models |
| Tropical Weather Watch Forecast |
| National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory |
| Storm Coordinates |
| WTNT34 KNHC 161748
TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009 200 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009 ...AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE FINDS CLAUDETTE STRONGER... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES... 65 KM...SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 160 MILES...255 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. CLAUDETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...AND ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER. STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... INCLUDING THE BIG BEND. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS |
| * Forecasters listed for and involved with and only with Tropical Weather Watch.com are not official forecasters nor hold a degree in Meteorology or any field associated with Meteorology, but are students in the field of Meteorology. All forecasts made by the Tropical Weather Watch Team are not official forecasts. Official hurricane forecasts are provided on this page and are made by the National Hurricane Center. Also for official forecasts visit the National Hurricane Center website at www.nhc.noaa.gov or the National Weather Service website at www.nws.noaa.gov. The National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, or any other organization are in no way affiliated with Tropical Weather Watch.com unless otherwise stated. Model graphics produced by www.wundergound.com or other outside orgnization stated. They are not generated by Tropical Weather Watch.com nor does Tropical Weather Watch.com assist in the creation of graphics. If you have any other questions concerning this information or any other information pertaining to this site, please feel free to email the Tropical Weather Watch.com administration at admin@tropicalweatherwatch.com |
| Tropical Storm Ana |
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| Tropical Storm Bill |
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| Claudette: 29.1 N, 85.1 W Movement towards the Northwest near 15mph. Maximum sustained winds near 50mph. Minimum central pressure 1008mb. Ana: 29.1 M, 57.8 W Movement towards the West near 25mp. Maximum sustained winds near 40mph. Minimum central pressure 1005mb. Bill: 12.1 N, 38.4 W Movement towards the West-northwest near 16mph. Maximum sustained winds near 60mph. Minumum central pressure 997mb. |
| Tropical Storm Claudette |
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